The Carolina Panthers will limp into the Windy City for a Week 5 showdown with the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.
Chicago has a great opportunity to build on last week’s win, facing a Carolina defense missing several starters, including massive gaps in the front seven. That sets up for a solid day from Bears running back D’Andre Swift, as highlighted in my Panthers vs. Bears predictions below.
Keep reading for my NFL picks on Sunday, October 6.
Panthers vs Bears prediction
My best betD’Andre Swift Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysisD’Andre Swift brings momentum and confidence into this Week 5 game. He posted his biggest day as a member of the Chicago Bears last Sunday, rumbling for 93 yards in a victory over the Rams.
In the three games prior, Swift mustered only 114 total yards on the ground and was averaging a piddly 1.8 yards per carry. Against the Rams, he carried the ball a season-high 16 times, albeit against one of the softer run-stop units in the league.
He has a similar opportunity against the Carolina Panthers, with NFL odds setting Swift’s rushing yard total at 50.5 Over/Under.
Overall, the Panthers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and sit 29th in ESPN’s run block win rate. Compounding those problems is a laundry list of ailments to the front seven of this defense.
Carolina is without standout DL Derrick Brown (knee) and LB Shaq Thompson (Achilles) for the rest of the season and will not have LB Josey Jewell for a while (hamstring). Nose tackle Shy Tuttle and LB Charles Harris are also questionable after being limited in practice.
That possibly leaves the Panthers dangerously thin at linebacker and leaning on inexperienced LBs Claudin Cherelus and Trevin Wallace in the second level, with six combined tackles between the two reserves.
Chicago is a 4-point favorite on Sunday and its defense has been among the best in the league, primed to take advantage of a bad Panthers attack. With the Bears likely protecting a lead in the second half, the game script says Chicago will go ground-heavy and put the ball in Swift’s hands.
Player projections for Week 5 range from 53 yards to as many as 68 yards from Swift. My number is at 59.8 rushing yards, knowing that his ceiling is higher, considering Carolina’s decimated defense and Chicago’s likelihood to run the ball in the final 30 minutes.
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Panthers vs Bears same-game parlay
D’Andre Swift 50+ rushing yardsAndy Dalton Over 0.5 interceptionsBears -3.5
+270 at BetMGM
Swift’s projections are all above 50 yards against a thin Carolina front seven that was bad against the run before those injuries.
Andy Dalton will be playing from behind and pressing the pass into one of the most dangerous defenses in the NFL. Chicago already has five interceptions.
The Bears defense will be too much for Carolina, and the Panthers defense will buckle with all those injuries. Getting the Bears below the undervalued key number of -4 is nice.
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Panthers vs Bears odds
Panthers vs Bears live odds
Panthers vs Bears opening odds
- Spread: Carolina +4.5 | Chicago -4.5
- Moneyline: Carolina +160 | Chicago -190
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Panthers vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis
- Chicago opened as high as -4.5 and has slowly dropped through -4 and sits as short as -3.5. Covers Consensus shows 59% of spread picks on the Bears.
- The Over/Under entered the market at 43.5 points and has been knocked down to as low as 41 points.
- The forecast for Sunday’s game calls for sustained winds of 15 mph, but with wind gusts up to 30 mph blowing sideline to sideline at Solider Field.
